Model 2.11 with a parametretrization for reinfection due to new BA,5 variant of about 100% (worse scenario). Data regarding the spread across data ranges can be reviewed at http://pand.sdlps.com/Pandemic-drivers.html (*From the version 2.10 of the model the forecast tries to find the current number of real cases and not a pesimistic scenario like previous models.)
This panel starts with the SDL-PAND project.
SDL-PAND aim is to become a Minimum Viable Digital Twin of the Catalonia pandemic situation to enhance the discussion based on models.
SDL-PAND: PANDEMIC SIMULATION TO TEST THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CONTAINMENT STRATEGIES THROUGH CELLULAR AUTOMATA AND INTELLIGENT AGENTS USING FORMAL LANGUAGES |
With the collaboration of:
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The simulation model allows to have a forecast of the evolution of the pandemic. It is corrected based on the actual data of the evolution of the pandemic. The current model is model 2.10. The R is calculated with the EpiEstim package of the statistical language “R”.
C3: 3 days moving average; C7: 7 days moving average; C14: 14 days moving average. C7 and C14 are more stable than C3, picking up trend variations in full week. Especially C3 has bias, an increase (very unstable) may represent a quick warning of possible worsening. Calculated for 100,000 inhabitants.
Detected cases.
Detected cases.
True cases.
True cases.
Hospitalizations.
Critical hospitalizations.
Daily deaths.
Daily vaccinations (first dose, cumulative)
Daily vaccinations (second dose, cumulative)
The aim of modeling by health regions is not the forecast but the validation of the global forecast.
SDL-PAND: PANDEMIC SIMULATION TO TEST THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CONTAINMENT STRATEGIES THROUGH CELLULAR AUTOMATA AND INTELLIGENT AGENTS USING FORMAL LANGUAGES
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The aim of modeling by EDAR is to perform a cross validation of the model previsions.
Edar IGUALADA - DIGU
Edar BANYOLES - DBAY
Edar GIRONA - DGIR
Edar PALAMÓS - DPAM
Edar BALAGUER - DBAL
Edar AMPOSTA - DAMP