SDL-PAND KPIs Model actual

Introduction

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Detected new cases model 2.11

Model 2.11 with a parametretrization for reinfection due to new BA,5 variant of about 100% (worse scenario). Data regarding the spread across data ranges can be reviewed at http://pand.sdlps.com/Pandemic-drivers.html (*From the version 2.10 of the model the forecast tries to find the current number of real cases and not a pesimistic scenario like previous models.)

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Information

This panel starts with the SDL-PAND project.

Title
SDL-PAND aim is to become a Minimum Viable Digital Twin of the Catalonia pandemic situation to enhance the discussion based on models.

SDL-PAND: PANDEMIC SIMULATION TO TEST THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CONTAINMENT STRATEGIES THROUGH CELLULAR AUTOMATA AND INTELLIGENT AGENTS USING FORMAL LANGUAGES

With the collaboration of:

All Catalunya

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New cases

The simulation model allows to have a forecast of the evolution of the pandemic. It is corrected based on the actual data of the evolution of the pandemic. The current model is model 2.10. The R is calculated with the EpiEstim package of the statistical language “R”.

R value (Digital Shadow)

Accumulated curve (Digital Shadow)

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KPI details

C3: 3 days moving average; C7: 7 days moving average; C14: 14 days moving average. C7 and C14 are more stable than C3, picking up trend variations in full week. Especially C3 has bias, an increase (very unstable) may represent a quick warning of possible worsening. Calculated for 100,000 inhabitants.

Effective growth. Digital Shadow

Detected cases.

Incidence. Digital Shadow.

Detected cases.

Effective growth. Digital Twin

True cases.

Incidence. Digital Twin.

True cases.

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Last day of system update

2024-06-17

New cases from the last day. Digital Shadow.

5515

Total number of cases (detected, with reinfections). Digital Shadow.

3806331

Last day of system executed.

2024-06-25

Actual number of cases (estimated, not considering reinfections). Digital Twin.

7275200

Actual number of cases at the end of the wave (estimated, not considering reinfections). Digital Twin.

7473330

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Infections

Health system incidence

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Hospitalizations

Hospitalizations.

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UCIs

Critical hospitalizations.

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Exitus

Daily deaths.

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Vaccinations First dose

Daily vaccinations (first dose, cumulative)

Vaccinations Second dose

Daily vaccinations (second dose, cumulative)

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Vaccinations% First Dose

87.94

Vaccinations% Second Dose

80.11

Health regions

Catalonia Health Regions

The aim of modeling by health regions is not the forecast but the validation of the global forecast.

Title
Barcelona Ciutat Metropolità Sud Metropolità Nord Camp de Tarragona Terres de l'Ebre Lleida Alt Pirineu i Aran Catalunya Central Girona

SDL-PAND: PANDEMIC SIMULATION TO TEST THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CONTAINMENT STRATEGIES THROUGH CELLULAR AUTOMATA AND INTELLIGENT AGENTS USING FORMAL LANGUAGES

EDAR

Catalonia EDAR

The aim of modeling by EDAR is to perform a cross validation of the model previsions.

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Catalonia EDAR PUIGCERDÀ - DPUI

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Catalonia EDAR BESÒS - DBSS

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Catalonia EDAR GAVÀ/VILADECANS - DGVC

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Catalonia EDAR PRAT DE LLOBREGAT, EL - DPDL

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Catalonia EDAR FALSET - DFAL

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Catalonia EDAR REUS - DRUS

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Catalonia EDAR TARRAGONA - DTAR

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Catalonia EDAR 9

Edar IGUALADA - DIGU

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Catalonia EDAR MANRESA - DMAS

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Catalonia EDAR SOLSONA - DSOL

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Catalonia EDAR 12

Edar BANYOLES - DBAY

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Catalonia EDAR 13

Edar GIRONA - DGIR

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Catalonia EDAR 14

Edar PALAMÓS - DPAM

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Catalonia EDAR 15

Edar BALAGUER - DBAL

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Catalonia EDAR LLEIDA - DLLE

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Catalonia EDAR MONTFERRER - DMOF

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Catalonia EDAR 18

Edar AMPOSTA - DAMP

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Catalonia EDAR TORTOSA-ROQUETES - DTOT

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Catalonia CCF DTOT

0

Catalonia CCF DBSS

0

Catalonia CCF DAMP

0

Catalonia CCF DMOF

0

Catalonia CCF DLLE

0

Catalonia CCF DBAL

0

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Catalonia CCF DPAM

0

Catalonia CCF DGIR

0

Catalonia CCF DBAY

0

Catalonia CCF DSOL

0

Catalonia CCF DMAS

0

Catalonia CCF DIGU

0

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Catalonia CCF DTAR

0

Catalonia CCF DRUS

0

Catalonia CCF DFAL

0

Catalonia CCF DPDL

0

Catalonia CCF DGVC

0

Catalonia CCF DPUI

0

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System validation

Model history

Previous models

Here we have the models that we have been developing and that have been invalidated by the non-pharmaceutical actions applied to reduce the spread of the virus.